منابع مشابه
Using Dsge Models
This paper is intended to be pedagogical rather than a presentation of original research. We describe a simple dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with capital utilization, capital adjustment costs, and a simple Cobb-Douglas technology to illustrate how DSGE models can be used to explain the past and to forecast the future. We identify one method to directly estimate latent var...
متن کاملForecasting with DSGE Models
In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-steps ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) that has been designed f...
متن کاملBreaks in DSGE models
In this paper, we investigate the consequences of breaks in mean for the estimates of model parameters and the resulting inferences about the structure of the economy and policy implications. We explore the behavior of DSGE models that undergo occasional, but permanent shocks to the parameters that determine their steady state. We present a method for approximating the state space representatio...
متن کاملThe Econometrics of Gravity Models
Gravity type models have often been used to analyse trade flows between countries and trading blocs. Previously however, these models were only applied to either cross-section data, or to single country time-series data, which imposed severe explicit (or implicit) restrictions on the specification of the model. Recently Gravity models have been generalised and adapted to a panel data setting, w...
متن کاملPredictive Likelihood Comparisons with DSGE and DSGE-VAR Models
In this paper we treat the issue of forecasting with DSGE and DSGE-VAR models, with particular attention to Bayesian estimation of the predictive distribution and its mean and covariance. As a novel contribution to the forecasting literature, which extends beyond (log-linearized) DSGE models and DSGE-VARs, we show how the value of the h-step-ahead marginal and joint predictive likelihood for a ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SERIEs
سال: 2010
ISSN: 1869-4187,1869-4195
DOI: 10.1007/s13209-009-0014-7